Basketball Return Matrix: The Strong Shall Remain Strong

by Matt Sussman on Apr 4, 2011 8:00 AM CDT

What seems inevitable is that the top teams, based on MAC performance, are going to remain that way. (Hustle Belt illustration)

KEY: Darker Green: Most returning; Lighter Green: Many returning; Lighter Red: Many leaving; Darker Red: Most leaving

This return matrix took the total stats for all 12 teams, subtracted the departing seniors, and gives us a pretty solid number that determines who's coming back, and in what capacity they'll be back.

Big seniors that are leaving include Xavier Silas (NIU), Brandon Bowdry (EMU), and Jalin Thomas (CMU). Byron Mulkey also gives Buffalo a big need at point guard, and Akron is waving goodbye to four really good seniors.

The reason I went like this is to minimize the repetition of saying "well, they're losing one of their top shooters, rebounders, and leaders." Yeah, that happens to everybody. But how do you compare that to other teams? And that's why total output is being compared.

So the two teams in the best position for next year is Kent State and Western Michigan, two division winners. Hoo boy. Bowling Green is also in a strong position to improve, but Miami and OHIO will hold their ground somewhat. As for Akron ... uh-oh. In the MAC West, you're going to see a bunch of key players leaving, and this could either be disastrous or, much like WMU from 09-10 to 10-11, have a "David Kool effect," meaning that just because one of their recent legends is leaving, that just gives someone else to step up and improve. Could be a blessing. Or it could just be another agonizing year for CMU/EMU/NIU. And Toledo will still be bad, but their seniors were marginal contributors to begin with.

So let us not use the Return Matrix as a direct factor into next year's favorites. Obviously recruiting is important, as is scheduling and luck. Then there are the coaches: points off Kent State and NIU for changing coaches. And there may be others.

But if we had to rank the 2011-12 teams right now:

MAC East
Kent State
OHIO
Miami
Bowling Green
Akron
Buffalo

MAC West
Western Michigan
Ball State
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
Northern Illinois

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Comments

It's really gut check time for WMU.

This could be a special year, and that chart shows why. So what are we gonna do about it? I want to see a really challenging non conference schedule and a winning record against the east.

It’s really remarkable to me how young the top teams in the conference were this year. This has a real potential to be a multiple bid league in 2012 if we schedule well in the nonconference.

by WMUpilot on Apr 4, 2011 11:21 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

The key to WMU's success will be to channel their emotions

They are a good team that will only get better skill-wise. However, their emotions tend to break them, and it shows. I won’t doubt that Western will be one of the best teams in the MAC West (I think Ball State will challenge for the spot), but to be the team that they could be (a 9-seed in the NCAA), they must not lose their heads.

As for that 9-seed, they are a good team, and the rest of the NCAA looks, well, weak. Any MAC school could have a great year and sneak up the seed ladder, and I see either Kent St or WMU doing that. The key is, as WMUpilot put it, a challenging non-conference schedule, and some victories on that schedule (or well played games). It most likely won’t happen, but Western MUST win a main portion of their schedule against these middle pack Mid-Majors.

Can the MAC put two teams in the NCAA tournament? Yes. Will they? Probably not. Anything can happen though, so I wouldn’t put it past these teams to do it. But the decent non-conference showings and the “no clear-cut dominant team” in not the conference, but the divisions needs to disappear for that to happen. If one (MAYBE two) team(s) can dominate their respective division and play great in non-conference, then the MAC will get two teams in the tournament (probably with the help of a “down” year with the rest of the nation)

by Brown and Gold on Apr 4, 2011 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm surprised NIU is losing that much.

They lost a ton of transfers/kicked off team the past two offseasons so this squad was actually pretty young. Guess that’s why Coach Patton was fired. He couldn’t recruit anyone worth a damn.

Anyway, and trust me on this, NIU losing that much of their “contributors” is a good thing. That team sucked and having those guys around another year (minus Silas, of course) wasn’t going to make them any better.

NIU’s breakdown:

Seniors – 3 – 32.4 ppg (heavy on the Silas)
- Jeremy Landers – 6.6 ppg
- Michael Patton – 3.5 ppg
- Xavier Silas – 22.3 ppg

Juniors – 6 – 23,3 ppg
- Lee Fisher – 4.0 ppg
- DeMarcus Grady – 4.0 ppg (mid-season addition)
- Bryan Hall – 4.0 ppg
- Cameron Madlock – 1.1 ppg
- Tyler Storm – 1.2 ppg
- Tim Toler – 9.0 ppg

Sophomores – 1 – 4.9- Tony Nixon – 4.9 ppg

Freshmen – 5 – 21.9 ppg- Askel Bolin – 2.7 ppg
- Antone Christian – 5.8 ppg
- Tre Edwards – 2.0 ppg
- Kyree Jones – 4.0 ppg
- Nate Rucker – 7.4 ppg

I just can’t wait until those 6 juniors leave. There isn’t one worth a damn.

Don’t get me wrong though. They’ll still be bad next year, but hopefully Montgomery can add to the freshman class (which doesn’t appear to be completely terrible) and can have something in two years worth watching.

Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.

- John Wayne

by Tackle Box on Apr 4, 2011 4:32 PM CDT reply actions

I did find this site enjoyable but

Your ranking of Buffalo last in the MAC East is the most ignorant and uneducated ranking I’ve ever seen. Javon McCrea just might be the best player in the MAC this year. Returning senior Mitchell Watt, hustle man Nick Barnett, and one of the strongest 3 point shooters in Zach Filzen…. next years team will be much better than this years. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.

If your argument is going to be that Byron Mulkey is no longer here, think again. UB only struggled on the road this year, and Mulkey was horrific in almost every road game. Reggie runs one of the simplest and most mindless offenses in the MAC. There is no learning curve. Jarrod Oldham/ Tony Watson will do just fine running Buffalo’s motion offense.

Teams are going to have to play out on Filzen or double McCrea. Leaving one or the other to take control of the game. McCrea will average over 20 a game this year. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he is among the nation’s scoring leaders either.

by drgraves on Apr 4, 2011 5:33 PM CDT reply actions