Buffalo (-14) at Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan (1-4, 0-1) is going nowhere, and getting worse by the week. The Eagles give up north of 42 points a game, good for 127th in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball EMU scores just 10.8, ranking 126th. Just getting back to The Factory should be a relief for the Eagles, they've not played a home game since squeaking by Old Dominion in their season opener on August 30th.
Buffalo (3-3, 1-1) remains a difficult team to gauge. The Bulls are a touchdown from being in the basement of the MAC East. They're a field goal from being in the top spot. Based on what I've seen this season, both are believable outcomes for the Bulls. Last week's 36-35 loss to Bowling Green was a bitter pill, but Eastern is coming at the right time. After the Eagles the Bulls get an improved Central Michigan team, a road trip to Ohio, and a showdown with Akron that could go a long way towards determining who wins the East. One could argue that there's trap game potential here, but I see it going the other direction. Take the Bulls, lay the points.
Miami at Akron (-13.5)
Miami (1-5, 1-1) might be the best 1-5 team in the country. Last week's win, a 42-41 thriller over UMass reminded us what MACtion is all about. Andrew Hendrix is slinging it. Against the Minutemen the senior tossed for 437 yards and four scores without an interception. Touch stretch here for Miami. After Akron, the RedHawks will travel to Northern Illinois.
Akron's (3-2, 1-0) defense is by far the stingiest in the MAC, and one of the top ranked units in the nation. The Zips give up fewer than 18 points a game. So it's unlikely that Hendrix will put up the numbers he did a week ago. Still, the 31 points Akron scored last week was its most since a 41-0 win over Howard to open the season. I've no doubt in the Akron defense, my only concern is that they'll put up enough points to create a two touchdown separation between themselves and the RedHawks. At first glance I thought, 24-10 Zips. Take Akron, lay the points.
Massachusetts (-2) at Kent State
I love games between winless teams this late in the season. A couple of plays go the other way and UMass (0-6, 0-2) is on top of the MAC East. The Minutemen can score points with the best of the them. In their last two losses against Bowling Green and Miami, Massachusetts scored 42 and 41 points. Rest assured, you'll see a lot of points on Saturday.
Kent State (0-5, 0-2) shocked everyone simply by competing with Northern Illinois last week. This may sound like a familiar theme, but those two conference losses, to NIU and Ohio respectively, were both only by a field goal. I don't think anyone is taking the Golden Flashes seriously in the MAC East, but I expect them to be competitive the entire season. What I don't see from Kent State is the points, and I expect UMass to break the scoreboard on Saturday. Take UMass, lay the points.
Bowling Green (+1) at Ohio
I'm not ready to say that Bowling Green (4-2, 2-0) is the best team in the East, but going into Saturday's games, they are alone on top of the division. Things get tougher starting this week, and the Falcons have road trips to Akron and Toledo to look forward to before the season is over. Win or lose, Bowling Green games always involve a ton of points. The Falcons are the top scoring team in the MAC, and second from the bottom in scoring defense.
Ohio's (3-3, 1-1) wins and losses are both unremarkable. The three wins were against Kent State, Idaho, and Eastern Illinois. The losses were Kentucky, Marshall, and Central Michigan. The game last week against the Chips probably should've been closer. CMU slapped around the Bobcats 28-10. I just don't have a lot of faith in Ohio's ability to put points on the board. The Bobcats average 19, 11th in the MAC. I'll take the Falcons and the point.
Western Michigan at Ball State (-2)
As loyal readers know, I don't pick the Ball State (1-4, 0-1) games. This one with Western Michigan (2-3, 0-1) most bettors would stay away from anyway. There's no way to know what to expect from the Cardinals. The Ozzie Mann era is now the Jack Milas era, as Pete Lembo has elected to make a change under center following the Cardinals underwhelming start. Plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball for BSU, so Milas will have plenty of weapons to work with. That said, these are two programs headed in opposite directions. It's homecoming for Ball State, and they desperately need a win. This one will be fun to watch.
Toledo (+3) at Iowa State
Toledo (4-2, 3-0) is to this point the class of the MAC with Northern Illinois, though they're not really blowing anybody away. Last week it took overtime before the Rockets were able to dispatch the Western Michigan Broncos, 20-19. Toledo loves to run the ball and Iowa State loves to give up yards on the ground. A win against Iowa State would go a long way for a Rockets team that was run over by Cincinnati and Missouri out of conference.
Iowa State is in the basement of the Big 12. That includes three-score losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State the last two weeks. The Cyclones give up a ton of points and fail to score that many themselves. Still, Toledo hasn't impressed me enough in out of conference action for me to take the Rockets in a game against a Power Five school. Maybe against Purdue. Not against Iowa State. Give me the Cyclones, lay the 3.
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (-9)
Game of the week, and if Central Michigan (3-3, 1-1) is able to pull the upset, you have my permission to take them seriously. The Chippewas have come a long way. Last week they cruised against Ohio, a week before they were within a touchdown of Toledo with under 8 minutes remaining before falling 42-28. Cooper Rush is the real deal, and he's only going to further impress as his career rolls on.
Northern Illinois (4-1, 1-0) knocked off Kent State in a nail biter last week, and it was a little bit troubling that they struggled with the Golden Flashes, particularly since they were run over by Arkansas the week before. The Huskies are still the Huskies though, and if they're able to get by the Chips, it should be smooth sailing until a showdown with Toledo on November 11th. It's important that NIU get out in front early against Central, otherwise the Chippewas can and will hang around to provide a scare. I think you'll see the former, not the latter. Take the Huskies, lay the points.