Ten weeks in, and three weeks to go, here's how the MAC East looks:
|MAC East||Rec.||Week 11||Week 12||Week 13|
|Kent State||5-0||@Miami||@Bowling Green||Ohio|
|Bowling Green||4-1||@ Ohio||Kent State||vs. Buffalo|
|Ohio||4-1||Bowling Green||@Ball State||@Kent State|
|Miami (OH)||3-2||Kent State||@Central Michigan||Ball State|
Assuming BGSU beats Buffalo, Kent State tops Miami and Ohio can win at Ball State — by no means certain things, any of them — the reason this division is such in flux is because all three of those teams have yet to play each other. There are four main scenarios here:
• All three teams go 1-1 against each other — Kent State likely wins the division.
• Kent State beats Bowling Green and Ohio — Kent State likely wins the division.
• Ohio beats Bowling Green and Kent State — Ohio likely wins the division.
• Bowling Green beats Kent State and Ohio — Bowling Green likely wins the division, and I likely get arrested for dancing in the streets nude.
So by virtue of being a game ahead, with everything involving college-aged students regressing toward randomness and parity, Kent State has a great inside track to win the MAC East and play in their first-ever MAC Championship Game.
I included Miami for a reason, albeit a hilarious one. The loss to Buffalo hurt, but Miami remains barely alive, and I mean barely. Even if they run the table to finish the season, they'd need an additional loss from both Kent State, BGSU and Ohio — and if possible, a second BGSU loss. Alternatively, if all four teams finish 6-2, then the tiebreaker is head-to-head record amongst all tied teams. Miami would be 2-1 against them. Ohio would be 1-2. And depending on the outcome of the Kent State-BGSU game, the winner of that game would be 2-1. If it's Bowling Green, Miami would lose in the second head-to-head tiebreaker and Bowling Green wins the division. If Kent State beats Bowling Green, then Miami wins the four-way tiebreaker.
If you can't follow that messy scenario — even I'm having trouble mapping it out on paper — then just enjoy the last three weeks.