Hustle Belt, for Mid-American Conference fans

For the fourth year, RTT picks a bracket using nothing but pythag and Log5. It's done well in two of three years. How about 2012?

Wherein I estimate the likelihood of each team winning the tournament, consider how this has been changed by the new tournament format, and investigate the case of apparently mis-seeded teams.

Wherein I estimate the likelihood of each team winning the tournament, consider how this has been changed by the new tournament format, and discover an oddity.

Using pythag and log5 to pick an NCAA bracket has done well in two of two years. Can it do well again in 2011?