Ngandu's got the week off (hospitalized due to non payment of debts following the MLB regular season) so I'll be steering the ship through this week's picks. We've got a full slate of MAC matchups and the annual Ball State/Army thriller. Toledo/Central Michigan was a push last week, otherwise we finished 3-2 ATS, bringing our season total to 22-18. Still above water, but ready for a huge week. I think this is the one. Dip into the kiddos college fund for this one, your week six MAC picks:
Ball State (+2.5) at Army:
I didn't pick any of the Ball State games last season ATS, and that won't be changing this season. I'm not superstitious, just fully aware that I lack the ability to be unbiased when it comes to the Cardinals. Loyalty is coming out of my eyeballs. I will tell you a couple of things you need to know though. These are two teams on a slide in desperate need of a win. Ball State especially. Pete Lembo has only gotten better season by season since arriving in Muncie, but the transition from All-Everything quarterback Keith Wenning to Ozzie Mann has been bumpy at best. Army hasn't had the success Ball State has in recent years, and they've got a new head coach running things, but I'm sure a loss to Yale last week wasn't part of the script. Unless Mann has some success in the air early, expect this game to be played on the ground for both teams. Win or lose, you at least get to see the triple option for a week.
Eastern Michigan (+25.5) at Akron
Eastern Michigan was on a bye a week ago, which I'm sure they were looking forward to. Ever since a season opening win at home against Morgan State, the Eagles have dropped three straight. In those losses to Florida, Old Dominion, and Michigan State, EMU has been outscored 155-17. They rank 127th in the nation in points allowed, 126th in points scored. There are a lot of stats I could throw at you, just know the Eagles are bad. Perhaps worst in the nation bad.
Akron's headed in the opposite direction. It's been difficult to put a finger on what kind of a team the Zips are this season. The opening win over Howard didn't really tell us anything, neither did the 21-3 loss against Penn State a week later. On September 20th Akron was crushed at home against Marshall, 48-17. I admit, I thought that was closer to the Akron team we should expect. The Zips changed the conversation last week with an upset at Pittsburgh, 21-10. Akron's a good MAC team, and they're going to be players in the East this season. They're a lot better than EMU, but I think they take their foot off the gas when the game is in hand. Take the Eagles and the points.
Massachusetts at Miami (-3.5)
I want UMass to win a game. I want it so, so much. The Minutemen have been so close. Now 0-5 on the season, UMass led Bowling Green in the fourth quarter last week before falling 47-42 in a shootout. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel did whatever he wanted all day, throwing for 589 yards and 5 TDs. UMass actually has the 26th ranked passing offense in the nation. The defense is 120th. They're a fun team to watch.
I want Miami to win a game. I want it so, so much. The RedHawks have been so close. Now 0-5 on the season, Miami has back to back road losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati respectively, by a touchdown. Like UMass, Miami led in the fourth quarter before a touchdown and late field goal by the Bulls. This one is going to be a blast to watch. Ultimately I'm more impressed by Miami's competitiveness in their non-conference schedule, and with the potential for a ridiculously high scoring game I think the margin of victory is closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Take the RedHawks, lay the points.
Ohio at Central Michigan (+4)
A win here and the Bobcats are owners of a three game winning streak. Meh. The last two came against Idaho and Eastern Illinois. Still, Ohio is a player in the wide open MAC East. J.D. Sprague will line up under center for Ohio on Saturday, but again, meh. Expect the game to be played on the ground, Sprague threw for just 143 yards and two picks against EIU last week.
Central Michigan has dropped three straight since a 38-17 win at Purdue on September 6th. I think that is more of a statement about the Boilermakers than the Chippewas. The Chips were blown out a week later against Syracuse and have otherwise remained competitive against Kansas and Toledo. Last week against the Rockets the defense was largely nonexistent, but CMU was able to air it out. Cooper Rush completed 24 of 31 passes for 291 yards and two scores. I think he'll have similar success this week. Take the Chips, lay the 4.
Buffalo at Bowling Green(-3)
I don't like Buffalo, and I haven't liked Buffalo all season. I had high expectations for the Bulls entering 2014, and the results have been lukewarm at best. Beating Duquesne to open the season was nothing special, and since then the two other Buffalo wins were against Norfolk State and the squeaker against Miami. They were destroyed by Baylor, and were down 30 to Army in the fourth quarter. They've got the talent to beat Bowling Green. They won't beat Bowling Green.
I'm more confident in the Falcons and perhaps that's unjustified. The script is similar. The wins were against Indiana, VMI, and a tight one against UMass. Of course they were slammed by Wisconsin, while the Badgers rewrote school record books. I do think this will be a close one, and if the game is in Buffalo, maybe I go with the Bulls. Regardless of what has happened to this point, this is an important matchup as far as the MAC East landscape is concerned. I'll take the Falcons and lay the points.
Kent State at Northern Illinois (-24.5)
It's a shame we don't get to see Kent State and Eastern Michigan butt heads this season. The Golden Flashes are awful. No one really thought they'd be great, but ever since they fell to Ohio 17-14 to open the season, things have gotten worse. Last week Virginia slapped them around 45-13, and KSU failed to cover the 27 point spread. I've no reason to believe things will get better, and I believe it's entirely possible Kent State is staring at the possibility of a winless season. Yeah I said it!
Northern Illinois has had a week to recover after being blown out at Arkansas 52-14. It was the first loss of the season for the Huskies, who have road wins against Northwestern and UNLV under its belt. NIU boats the 14th ranked rushing offense in the nation, at just shy of 275 yards a game. There's no doubt NIU is an easy bet to win, but unlike Akron, I don't think the Huskies let up once the win is ensured. Perhaps after they've put 35-40 between themselves and the Golden Flashes. Take the Huksies, lay the points.
Toledo (-6) at Western Michigan
This is in my opinion Saturday's most interesting matchup. Toledo's got a pair of MAC West wins to its credit, though I don't know that many people are viewing them as real challengers to Northern Illinois at this point. This game will be no cake walk, certainly evidenced by the spread. Either way you're going to see a bunch of points. Win or lose, Toledo doesn't know another way. Scoreboards beware.
If Western Michigan pulls the home upset on Saturday, you all owe P.J. Fleck a big, fat apology. There's no denying that the Broncos are trending in the right direction. Western let a win at Purdue slip away, and competed well in a loss against Virginia Tech last week. They can score points, better than 35 a game, and as I said, Toledo loves to give them up. Expect nothing less than a shootout on Saturday in Kalamazoo. Western Michigan's time is coming, and it's not far away, but it's not here yet. Saturday take the Rockets and lay the six.