2014 MAC Football: Analyzing The Mid-American Conference Schedule

The Mid-American Conference released its complete 2014 football schedule on Friday afternoon.  We, your friends here at Hustle Belt, are here to analyze it for you.  Who has the toughest road to Detroit?  Who has the easiest?  Who could make it through their non-conference schedule unscathed?  We're here to tell you.

First, let's take a look at the schedule.  We've compiled a handy table with each team's week-by-week schedule.  Please note that the scheduled date for each game appears BELOW the listed opponent (for instance, Akron's game against Howard is on August 28th).  Also note that specific game times and television arrangements have not been finalized yet and will be released at a later date.

Here's the Eastern Division...

MAC EAST	Akron	Bowling Green	Buffalo	Kent State	U Mass	Miami	Ohio
Week 1	Howard	at W. Kentucky	Duquesne	Ohio	Boston College	Marshall	at Kent State
	Aug. 28	Aug. 28	Aug. 30	Aug. 30	Aug. 30	Aug. 30	Aug. 30
Week 2	at Penn State	VMI	at Army	S. Alabama	Colorado	E. Kentucky	at Kentucky
	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6
Week 3	BYE	Indiana	Baylor	at Ohio State	at Vanderbilt	at Michigan	at Marshall
		Sept. 13	Sept. 12	Sept. 13	Sept. 13	Sept. 13	Sept. 13
Week 4	Marshall	at Wisconsin	Norfolk State	BYE	at Penn St.	at Cincinnati	Idaho
	Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20		Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20
Week 5	at Pittsburgh	at U Mass	Miami	at Virginia	BGSU	at Buffalo	E. Illinois
	Sept. 27	Sept. 27	Sept. 27	Sept. 27	Sept. 27	Sept. 27	Sept. 27
Week 6	E. Michigan	Buffalo	at BGSU	at N. Illinois	at Miami	U Mass	at C. Michigan
	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4
Week 7	Miami	at Ohio	at EMU	U Mass	at Kent State	at Akron	BGSU
	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11
Week 8	at Ohio	W. Michigan	BYE	Army	E. Michigan	at N. Illinois	Akron
	Oct. 18	Oct. 18		Oct. 18	Oct. 18	Oct. 18	Oct. 18
Week 9	at Ball State	BYE	CMU	at Miami	at Toledo	Kent State	at W. Michigan
	Oct. 25		Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25
Week 10	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	BYE	W. Michigan	BYE
						Nov. 1
Week 11	BGSU	at Akron	at Ohio	Toledo	BYE	BYE	Buffalo
	Nov. 4	Nov. 4	Nov. 5	Nov. 4			Nov. 5
Week 12	at Buffalo	Kent State	Akron	at BGSU	Ball State	at C. Michigan	BYE
	Nov. 11	Nov. 12	Nov. 11	Nov. 12	Nov. 12	Nov. 15
Week 13	U Mass	at Toledo	Kent State	at Buffalo	at Akron	BYE	N. Illinois
	Nov. 18	Nov. 19	Nov. 19	Nov. 19	Nov. 18		Nov. 18
Week 14	at Kent State	Ball State	at U Mass	Akron	Buffalo	Ohio	at Miami
	Nov. 25	Nov. 28	Nov. 28	Nov. 25	Nov. 28	Nov. 25	Nov. 25

And the Western Division...

MAC WEST	Ball State	C. Michigan	E. Michigan	N. Illinois	Toledo	W. Michigan
Week 1	Colgate	Chattanooga	Morgan State	Presbyterian	New Hampshire	at Purdue
	Aug. 30	Aug. 28	Aug. 30	Aug. 28	Aug. 30	Aug. 30
Week 2	at Iowa	at Purdue	at Florida	at Northwestern	Missouri	BYE
	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6	Sept. 6
Week 3	Indiana State	Syracuse	at Old Dominion	at UNLV	at Cincinnati	at Idaho
	Sept. 13	Sept. 13	Sept. 13	Sept. 13	Sept. 12	Sept. 13
Week 4	at Toledo	at Kansas	at Michigan St.	at Arkansas	Ball State	Murray State
	Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20	Sept. 20
Week 5	BYE	at Toledo	BYE	BYE	C. Michigan	at Virginia Tech
		Sept. 27			Sept. 27	Sept. 27
Week 6	at Army	Ohio	at Akron	Kent State	at W. Michigan	Toledo
	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4	Oct. 4
Week 7	W. Michigan	at N. Illinois	Buffalo	C. Michigan	at Iowa State	at Ball State
	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11	Oct. 11
Week 8	at C. Michigan	Ball State	at U Mass	Miami	BYE	at BGSU
	Oct. 18	Oct. 18	Oct. 18	Oct. 18		Oct. 18
Week 9	Akron	at Buffalo	N. Illinois	at E. Michigan	U Mass	Ohio
	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25	Oct. 25
Week 10	BYE	at E. Michigan	C. Michigan	BYE	BYE	at Miami
		Nov. 1	Nov. 1			Nov. 1
Week 11	N. Illinois	BYE	BYE	at Ball State	at Kent State	BYE
	Nov. 5			Nov. 5	Nov. 4
Week 12	at U Mass	Miami	at W. Michigan	Toledo	at N. Illinois	E. Michigan
	Nov. 12	Nov. 15	Nov. 15	Nov. 11	Nov. 11	Nov. 15
Week 13	E. Michigan	W. Michigan	at Ball State	at Ohio	BGSU	at C. Michigan
	Nov. 22	Nov. 22	Nov. 22	Nov. 18	Nov. 19	Nov. 22
Week 14	at BGSU	BYE	Toledo	at W. Michigan	at E. Michigan	N. Illinois
	Nov. 28		Nov. 28	Nov. 25	Nov. 28	Nov. 28

Now, let's go team-by-team and give a couple of brief talking points about their individual gauntlet...

Akron

The Zips start out with an FCS team, but the remainder of their non-conference slate is difficult.  Pittsburgh won a bowl game last season, and Marshall won their division in Conference USA.  If there's a chance for an upset in their two road games, look towards the game at Penn State.  The conference schedule looks very manageable.  The only home game of consequence is Bowling Green, and they avoid both Northern Illinois and Toledo entirely.

Bowling Green

The Falcons have an FCS team at home and a winnable road game against Western Kentucky.  However, their two Big 10 opponents will be very tough.  The home game with Indiana prevents a revenge opportunity for last year's 42-10 disaster.  In conference play, they have two home tricky cross-division games against teams they haven't seen in a few years, especially that season-ender against Ball State.  The roadie at Akron could be huge for the division, but all eyes will be focused on the weeknight game at Toledo.

Buffalo

Buffalo plays Baylor at home, and so apparently that makes it necessary to play two FCS teams.  We're not a fan of this strategy.  When you include their game at Army, it ought to be an embarrassment if the Bulls aren't 3-1 when MAC play begins.  The Bulls get Akron at home the week after the Zips host BGSU, but trips to both Bowling Green and Ohio may be hard to overcome.

Kent State

The Golden Flashes have the chance to kick off the season in style when those host Ohio on August 30th.  They have two very winnable non-conference games at home but also must play at Ohio State and Virginia.  The conference slate is non-forgiving.  They have a trip to NIU then back-to-back games at BGSU and Buffalo.  They also have to play Toledo and Akron at home.

Massachusetts

The Minutemen are one of only two MAC teams (Kent State is the other) to not have an FCS team on their schedule.  Their four games against power-conference teams aren't against any big names, but anything but an 0-4 start would probably be an upset.  They'll have a hard time starting the conference season off well, too.  Three of the first five are on the road, and one of the home games is Bowling Green.

Miami

The RedHawks have a new coach and will likely have a new quarterback, but will it lead to more wins?  They start the season with two home games and avoid BGSU, but three of their first four in conference play are on the road against Buffalo, Akron and Northern Illinois.  Right now, it's hard to see more than 1 or 2 wins in their first eight.

Ohio

Ohio's losing some star talent, but if they can get some good quarterback play early, a 3-2 or 4-1 start isn't out of the question.  They should beat Idaho and Eastern Illinois at home, and games at Kent State and Kentucky are winnable.  The Bobcats do have to play BGSU, Akron, Buffalo and Northern Illinois, but all of those games are at home.  This team could surprise.

Ball State

We already noted how two MAC teams have no FCS schools on their schedule.  Well, two others make up the difference by playing two, and Ball State joins Buffalo in that group.  The Cardinals play Colgate and Indiana State, and while their other two non-conference games are on the road, one of those is Army, just like Buffalo.  And just like Buffalo, Ball State better go at least 3-1 outside of the MAC.  The Cardinals open and close the MAC season with tough road games, but in between, they play four home games from Week 7 to Week 13.

Central Michigan

The Chippewas stand a decent chance of going at least 2-2 in non-conference games.  They host Syracuse and have road games against two of the worst power conference teams during 2013 (Purdue and Kansas).  Four of their first six MAC games are on the road, including trips to NIU and Toledo.  However, if they can emerge from those in contention, they close with Miami and WMU at home.

Eastern Michigan

The Eagles better beat Morgan State at home to open the season, because after that, it gets ugly.  They have trips to Florida and Michigan State before September is over, then play at Akron and at home against Buffalo and Northern Illinois during October.  They don't have to face BGSU again, but they also don't get Miami or Kent State -- and their game against Massachusetts is on the road.

Northern Illinois

If the Huskies are to get back to another MAC Championship game, they'll have to survive a difficult opening month that includes trips to Northwestern and Arkansas.  However, NIU has a great chance to start the MAC season 4-0, as they open with three straight at home (Kent State, CMU, Miami) before playing at EMU.  The Huskies also get Toledo as their only home game in November and avoid BGSU, Buffalo and Akron.  It's a very favorable schedule.

Toledo

The Rockets path to Detroit starts with home games against Ball State and Central Michigan.  A tricky trip to Kalamazoo follows those game.  However, the two games of the year for Toledo are back-to-back in November.  They travel to DeKalb for a game with Northern Illinois on November 11th, then they host Bowling Green eight days later.  The Rockets' season will live or die by those two games.

Western Michigan

Can the Broncos' 2014 recruiting class help turn things around right away?  We'll see with two immediate road games against Purdue and Idaho, who were both terrible in 2013.  They also get Murray State at home, so is a 3-0 start out of the question?  Well, 2-1 might be more realistic, but 3-0 isn't as far-fetched as you think.  Outside of the trip to BGSU, their hardest conference games (Toledo, Ohio and NIU) are all at home.  These guys could definitely play spoiler in 2014.

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So, who's got the hardest conference schedule?  Based on conference records from 2013, that distinction goes to Kent State.  The Flashes have to play both defending division champions on the road and have to play at Buffalo.  What about the easiest?  Again, based on 2013 conference records, Buffalo has the easiest slate.  The deciding factor there is that the Bulls don't have to face any of the top teams from the West in their cross-division games.

Here's how those schedules are ranked, from easiest to hardest, with opponents' 2013 conference record in parentheses:

1. Buffalo (25-39)

2. Northern Illinois (26-38)

3. Akron (29-35)

4. Massachusetts (33-31)

5. Ohio (34-30)

6. Central Michigan (32-32)

7. Toledo (33-31)

8. Ball State (32-32)

9. Miami (32-32)

10. Bowling Green (31-33)

11. Eastern Michigan (37-27)

12. Western Michigan (37-27)

13. Kent State (35-29)

As you can see, the top three and bottom three teams each really separate themselves out from the middle of the pack.  What we did here was rank each team's schedule of four home games, then rank schedule of four road games.  We then combined the two rankings.

For instance, Ohio has the league's hardest schedule at home (composite opponents' 2013 record was 25-7) but the league's easiest schedule on the road (9-23).  Bowling Green ranks 8th-easiest at home and 7th-easiest on the road.  This is why Ohio has the 5th easiest overall schedule and BGSU's is 10th, despite the fact that Ohio's opponents had a better overall record in 2013.  Their home-road split is simply more favorable than Bowling Green's.

Now, all this doesn't really mean a whole lot as spring practices are just beginning, and the off-season still has several months to go.  However, it does give us some preliminary ideas of what to expect once fall arrives...and if nothing else, it allows us to plan our own schedules so we can watch as much quality #MACtion as possible.