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Roberts Poll Update: Week 12

We have a new sheriff in town, and they look good in green.

Dollar General Bowl - Ohio v Troy Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images

Another eventful week college football has come and gone. Conference favorite Toledo has fallen to Ohio. Five ranked teams left with a loss, each coming on the road. Let’s try to sort through the chaos in an organized fashion:

In case you weren’t here the first time, we at Hustle Belt (with the help of yours truly) came up with a formula to rank FBS teams. It basically comes down to a mathematical formula that takes the quality of a win or loss and combines it with margin of victory to assign a team points.

Keep in mind that these are just statistics, not our human rankings. My projections do not take into account any MACtion that makes this conference so much fun to watch.


MAC Standings:

First of all, the elephant in the room: the Ohio Bobcats completely dismantled the Toledo Rockets, 38-10. Although Toledo has held a huge lead in Roberts Poll standings, Ohio’s win moved them into their rightful place atop the standings. With the shift in power, each team’s projected finished changed as well. Toledo shifted from expecting a 12-1 record with a MAC Championship, but will now look toward a 10-3 season and a losing bid in Detroit. Ohio would have had a respectable 9-3 season and the coveted second-place position in the conference, but will now enjoy an 11-2 season and the MAC crown.

The Central Michigan Chippewas will take over the fifth position with a 42-30 win over rival Eastern Michigan Eagles. Although Central Michigan may have beaten the Western Michigan Broncos, the Chippewas have not earned enough Roberts Poll points to cut into the Broncos’ lead.

This week had another shift in the middle of the rankings. The Miami-Ohio Redhawks upset the Akron Zips 24-14, moving each team a little closer to each other.Earning a 38-28 victory over the Bowling Green Falcons, the Buffalo Bulls also moved up a slot. Eastern Michigan’s loss to Central Michigan was enough for two positions downward in the close MAC race.

The final three positions have not changed since last week. Although those three positions may move around if any team wins, it would take a pair of miracles to move up into ninth place or better. Bowling Green, for instance, would need two Eastern Michigan losses and two wins of their own, each by a margin of 26 points.

MAC Standings: Roberts Poll

Ranking High Low Team Bowl Week Total Overall Best
Ranking High Low Team Bowl Week Total Overall Best
1 1 3 Toledo *# -84 542 #33 #20
2 1 5 Ohio 85 433 #39 #27
3 3 8 Northern Illinois -62 270 #54 #37
4 3 9 Central Michigan -63 162 #66 #41
5 1 10 Western Michigan 0 89 #77 #40
6 4 11 Buffalo 0 24 #88 #71
7 1 9 Eastern Michigan 0 -27 #90 #22
8 5 12 Akron * -97 -72 #93 #76
9 7 10 Miami 0 -106 #97 #87
10 10 12 Bowling Green 0 -562 #123 #115
11 9 12 Kent State 0 -628 #124 #106
12 4 12 Ball State 0 -693 #128 #63
# MAC Champion; * Division Champion Spencer Roberts

RP Top 25:

After quite a few breath-taking finishes, the dust has finally settled in the national scene. For the seventh consecutive week, the Alabama Crimson Tide is the top team, despite a scare from the Mississippi State Bulldogs. A 40-17 upset of the Georgia Bulldogs helped move the Auburn Tigers up five positions in the Roberts Poll. That same game only managed to drop Georgia down two positions because of the points they amassed so far.

Also moving up were the Ohio State Buckeyes, who moved into the third-place slot with a 48-3 blowout of the Michigan State Spartans. Perhaps the game with the greatest impact came from the Miami-Florida Hurricanes hosting a 41-8 beat-down of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The Michigan Wolverines hold the highest position in the Roberts Poll of all the unranked teams in College Football Playoff (CFP) Poll. Just below the Wolverines are the Stanford Cardinal, who hosted the upset of Washington. Stanford was not ranked last week in the Roberts Poll. This week, Stanford entered the Roberts Poll Top 25 to replace Toledo after the Rockets’ loss.

Roberts Poll Top 25

Rank High Low Team Last Week's Result RP Points
Rank High Low Team Last Week's Result RP Points
1 1 4 Alabama # W 26-23 vs UGA 1282
2 2 27 Georgia * L 23-26 vs Bama 1175
3 2 45 Ohio State * W 24-7 vs USC 1173
4 2 25 Wisconsin W 34-24 vs MIA-FL 1118
5 1 17 Oklahoma * L 48-54 vs UGA 1043
6 6 46 UCF *# W 34-27 vs Auburn 1028
7 1 10 Penn State W 35-28 vs WASH 1027
8 2 10 Clemson * L 6-24 vs Bama 1016
9 3 23 TCU W 39-37 vs STAN 864
10 8 48 Auburn L 27-34 vs UCF 845
11 4 15 Washington L 28-35 vs Penn St 832
12 8 32 USC * L 7-24 vs Ohio St 820
13 5 19 Oklahoma State W 30-21 vs VT 783
14 5 53 Notre Dame W 21-17 vs LSU 756
15 15 76 Northwestern W 24-23 vs UK 749
16 16 70 Boise State * W 38-28 vs Oregon 725
17 4 74 Stanford L 37-39 vs TCU 685
18 18 63 Michigan State W 42-17 vs WAZZU 669
19 9 73 Miami (FL) L 24-34 vs WIS 655
20 20 122 Florida Atlantic * W 50-3 vs Akron 650
21 21 92 Troy * W 50-30 vs UNT 620
22 5 35 South Florida W 38-34 vs TTU 607
23 21 51 Army W 42-35 vs SDSU 601
24 6 52 Mississippi State W 31-27 vs LOU 594
25 20 85 Fresno State W 33-27 vs HOU 589
#: Claims National Championship; *: Conference champions Spencer Roberts

Analysis:

As mentioned previously, Alabama is still the leader of the FBS in Roberts Poll points. The lead is not technically set in stone, but it sure looks to be final. Second place belongs to the Wisconsin Badgers, who trail by 168 points. From third place to #17, all sixteen teams are in a massive cluster just waiting for chaos to happen. By contrast, the San Jose State Spartans and Texas-El Paso Miners have the last and second-to-last positions covered.

The biggest gain was in position belonged to Miami (FL), who beat Notre Dame in blowout fashion. The Hurricanes gained six well-deserved positions despite being a game behind everyone else due to actual hurricanes. Two other teams dropped eight positions, in addition to Notre Dame. The Washington Huskies fell in a 30-22 upset loss to Stanford, dropping the Huskies quickly. Losing near the top of the pack proved to be devastating for the TCU Horned Frogs as well. A 38-20 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners was all it took to send TCU towards the bottom of the Top 25.

Scoring the most points of the week was a tie between Miami and Auburn. Each put together 133 Roberts Poll points in their respective highly-ranked upset wins. The Northern Illinois Huskies earns a mention in their 63-17 win over the Ball State Cardinals, which earned them 96 Roberts Poll points. Ball State also lost 96 points in that same game, which was the biggest loss in points this week. Ball State had the misfortune of losing the most points in the FBS for four weeks in a row.