clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Week 4 MACtion Bet-kakke Sports Gambling Lessons and Picks

Yet another blazing week and we’re back for even more.

Super Bowl 50 Proposition Bets At The Westgate Las Vegas Race & Sports SuperBook Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Sure, at its most basic, the return of football is its own reward. But perhaps you’re like me and looking for a way to make even the most uninteresting games have a little bit of excitement and put some skin in the game for you. Enter the glorious world of sports wagering.

Admittedly, sports wagering is not for everyone and there’s more reasons to not do it than to do it, but if you have disposable income and live near a place where this is an option, then combining making some dollar bills with watching some football isn’t a bad way to spend your time. You haven’t truly lived until you have been on pins and needles for a mid-week SunBelt game where a final drive is going to determine whether it’s a backdoor cover or a perfect weekend.

Each week this season, we’ll give you a little gambling lesson and your Mid-American Conference odds, all for entertainment purposes, of course.

Lesson 4: Bankroll Management

One of the things that sets apart the casual bettor and the consistent winner is bankroll management. If picking winners is the most important thing for a bettor, making sure their bankroll is protected and spent wisely is easily number two. Your goal should be to minimize risk while maximizing payoff over the course of a season.

Different gamblers have different theories. Conventional wisdom says that anywhere between 3% and 5% of your bankroll should be the size of your normal bets. I’m a big fan of that number and it has proven well for me. I don’t vary the amount on bets no matter how confident I am on them. If I’m wagering, I trust my pick and then I trust my system. The worst thing you can do is increase your bets when you’re winning because you have more to play with, or the even worse thing of betting bigger to recoup losses. This is bad. Don’t do this.

The real thing about bankroll management is that you should really consider bets you make as lost money. If you go into it with that kind of attitude then you’re likely to never really get too upset or too down after a bad weekend or gameday. I’ve been upset about bets not going my way, but never angry or down because I couldn’t afford food after a loss. Which sort of brings us full circle to the disclaimer of “don’t risk what you can’t afford to lose”. It should be fun, it shouldn’t be a stroke-inducing ball of worry because you don’t know how you’re going to make rent after Eastern Michigan failed to cover.

Keep in mind that in this sort of entertainment, a professional who goes 55% to 60% over a season is a phenomenal result. So it’s likely, if not outright guaranteed, that you’re going to lose at least some (if not an outright lot) of the bets you’re going to make. By betting consistent amounts across the wagers you feel the most secure in you’re giving yourself the advantage and letting your bankroll work for you.

So now that you know how to manage the bankroll, let’s build it up a bit, shall we? Week 4... let’s go.

Week 3 Results

Ohio (-7.5) WIN
Akron (+10.5) LOSS
Northern Illinois (+12) WIN
Central Michigan (+9.5) LOSS
Marshall (-14) WIN
Toledo (-8.5) LOSS
Idaho (+21.5) WIN
Northwestern (-20.5) WIN
Cincinnati (+4.5) WIN

Minnesota (-9.5) WIN
Oregon (-14) WIN

We promised a rebound and a return to our week 1 level success. Let’s see.... do some math, carry the one, take the square root and that’s a 6-3 week in the MAC and 2-1 on the bonus picks. 8 and friggin’ 4 overall this week. It wasn’t perfect, but if you bet these selections you are absolutely killing it. We’re winning on the season in both the MAC and the bonus picks (even with one bad week) and by now you’ve probably paid off your house, funded your kids’ college fund, and bought a boat. Everyone loves boats. Bring it week 4... time to get rich, kiddies.

Week 4 MACtion Lines

Eight matchups this week for MAC squads taking on FBS opponents. One gigantic spread, loads of road dogs, and some very opportune lines.

Kent State Golden Flashes @ Louisville Cardinals (--44)
Ohio University Bobcats @ Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2.5)
Toledo Rockets @ Miami-Florida Hurricanes (-13.5)
Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ Central Michigan Chippewas (-1.0)
Akron Zips @ Troy Trojans (-15.5)
Florida Atlantic Owls @ Buffalo Bulls (-3)
Ball State Cardinals @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-8)
Bowling Green Falcons @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-7)

Fearless Leader’s Week 4 Bet-kakke Picks

We’ve always said weeks one through three is where the money is made, and we’ve shown that this season. Week 4 continues that trend for all of us. Let’s get rich, babies, and print some money.

Kent State (+44)
Ohio (+2.5)
Miami (-13.5)
Central Michigan (-1)
Akron (+15.5)
Florida Atlantic (+3)
Ball State (+8)
Middle Tennessee (-7)

Michigan State (-4)
Georgia (-4.5)
Maryland (-3.5)

Let’s hit 11-0, what do you say?