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We're just a little over one week away from the MAC Tournament, and here's how the bracket would look like if the it started today (h/t Bull Run):
Here are the tiebreakers between two teams:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Winning percentage against seeded teams in the bracket counting down from the top against common opponents
When three teams are tied, you take the record among the three teams first and then move to tiebreaker #2 above.
For analysis on the potential match-ups, check out our latest "Q-Gazing" where you can vote who you think will move on to the next round. Let's go through seed by seed and explain the tiebreakers in play:
1. Toledo (12-4)
2. Buffalo (12-4)
3. Western Michigan (12-4)
The Rockets hold the tie-breaker over Buffalo because they beat the Bulls in mid-January. If all three of Buffalo, Western Michigan and Toledo end up tied at the end of the regular season, Toledo would take the one seed because the Rockets are 2-1 against the other two teams. Bufflalo is 1-1 while Western Michigan is 1-2.
Toledo should finish 14-4 with two (should be) easy wins this week over Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Western Michigan will likely move up to two after beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. I'm projecting a Buffalo loss at Akron followed up by a win over Bowling Green, which puts them at 13-3 and the three seed.
So, if Toledo and Western end up tied, Toledo would get the one seed because they have beaten Buffalo (the three seed) and Western Michigan did not.
4. Akron (10-6)
The Zips are holding steady at four for now because they've lost to all three of the teams ahead of them. Buffalo plays at Akron on Wednesday so if the Zips win, another tie-breaker may come into effect. Buffalo has to lose their next two games and Akron has to win both for that to happen though, and while the Bulls may not beat Akron they should beat Bowling Green on Sunday. The Zips will likely finish 12-6 and will be the fourth seed.
5. Ohio (9-7)
6. Eastern Michigan (9-7)
Ohio earns the tie-breaker here because they beat the Eagles 58-56 in late January. The Bobcats' next two are on the road against Bowling Green and Miami while Eastern gets Ball State at home and heads to Toledo.
7. Northern Illinois (7-9)
8. Kent State (7-9)
9. Miami (7-9)
10. Bowling Green (6-10)
This is where it gets messy. If Northern Illinois, Kent State and Miami tie the team with the best record among the three would take the top seed. For that tiebreaker, Northern Illinois is 2-1, Kent State is 2-1, and Miami is 0-2. That puts Miami at the nine seed and leaves us to deal with the Huskies and Flashes. Northern Illinois is 1-1 against Toledo (the top seeded team) while Kent State is 0-1. That gives the Huskies the edge.
If Bowling Green finds themselves tied with these three teams at the end, the seeding would go like this: NIU would get seven because of a 3-1 record against the others, Kent would get eight (3-2), Miami nine (2-2) and BG ten (1-4). So, BG is pretty much locked into the ten seed unless they happen to win out.
11. Central Michigan (3-13)
12. Ball State (2-14)
If Ball State and Central Michigan were to tie, the Chippewas would get the better seed because of their better division record (2-8 vs. 1-9).
/Exhale