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The MAC East Picture Is Clear, Albeit Complicated

Kent State, Bowling Green and Ohio are in a veritable three-team race for the MAC East division, with Kent State running on the inside track. Although a doomsday scenario could result in Miami still winning this weird thing.

Ohio can still win the MAC East. They simplsy have to win the rest of their games, just like everybody else.
Ohio can still win the MAC East. They simplsy have to win the rest of their games, just like everybody else.
Jamie Sabau

Ten weeks in, and three weeks to go, here's how the MAC East looks:

MAC East Rec. Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
Kent State 5-0 @Miami @Bowling Green Ohio
Bowling Green 4-1 @ Ohio Kent State vs. Buffalo
Ohio 4-1 Bowling Green @Ball State @Kent State
Miami (OH) 3-2 Kent State @Central Michigan Ball State

Assuming BGSU beats Buffalo, Kent State tops Miami and Ohio can win at Ball State — by no means certain things, any of them — the reason this division is such in flux is because all three of those teams have yet to play each other. There are four main scenarios here:

• All three teams go 1-1 against each other — Kent State likely wins the division.
Kent State beats Bowling Green and Ohio — Kent State likely wins the division.
• Ohio beats Bowling Green and Kent State — Ohio likely wins the division.
• Bowling Green beats Kent State and Ohio — Bowling Green likely wins the division, and I likely get arrested for dancing in the streets nude.

So by virtue of being a game ahead, with everything involving college-aged students regressing toward randomness and parity, Kent State has a great inside track to win the MAC East and play in their first-ever MAC Championship Game.

I included Miami for a reason, albeit a hilarious one. The loss to Buffalo hurt, but Miami remains barely alive, and I mean barely. Even if they run the table to finish the season, they'd need an additional loss from both Kent State, BGSU and Ohio — and if possible, a second BGSU loss. Alternatively, if all four teams finish 6-2, then the tiebreaker is head-to-head record amongst all tied teams. Miami would be 2-1 against them. Ohio would be 1-2. And depending on the outcome of the Kent State-BGSU game, the winner of that game would be 2-1. If it's Bowling Green, Miami would lose in the second head-to-head tiebreaker and Bowling Green wins the division. If Kent State beats Bowling Green, then Miami wins the four-way tiebreaker.

If you can't follow that messy scenario — even I'm having trouble mapping it out on paper — then just enjoy the last three weeks.