Hustle Belt - Wednesday Night MAC Football: Ohio-Bowling GreenMAC Football, MAC Basketball, MAC Recruiting, MAC Baseball and all of the other #MACtion hijinks in between - hustlebeltblog@gmail.comhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50387/hustle-fav.png2012-11-07T23:21:40-05:00http://www.hustlebelt.com/rss/stream/33797912012-11-07T23:21:40-05:002012-11-07T23:21:40-05:00And the BGSU defense does its job
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<p>What did I tell ya? The defense! I was right about something! They held the Bobcats to just 14 points, more than 20 points below their MAC offensive average, and other than those two impressive drives — and their last-gasp one — the Bobcats were fully neutralized. The Falcons defense accounted for four sacks, including a backbreaker by Aaron Foster to set up a hopeless 4th and 19 play, which fell well short of the first down.</p>
<p>Anthon Samuel salted the game away with a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and also had a nifty cutback to seal the game at the end. He had 181 yards on 29 carries. Matt Schilz wasn't very effective passing, but he did have two terrific ball fakes in the game, one which set up a 55-yard touchdown and one, a fake handoff to Samuel, he kept for a first down run.</p>
<p>The MAC East suddenly becomes decided next Saturday in Bowling Green when Kent State visits town. This is what we all saw, correct?</p>
<p>As for Ohio, three games in 12 days finally caught up to them and they fall to 8-2. A trip to Ball State in seven days awaits them. Yay?</p>
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2012/11/7/3616500/bowling-green-ohio-final-scoreMatt Sussman2012-11-07T22:30:34-05:002012-11-07T22:30:34-05:00BGSU leads 19-14 after three quarters
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<p>So, about the punting ... yeah, they're still working on it. Ohio had another punt blocked and also muffed a punt return, but that latter gaffe set up a 95-yard touchdown drive that really swung the momentum. So there's a silver lining in everything. Maybe they should just score ALL their touchdowns from 90 yards out rather than punting! Yeah, that's the ticket!</p>
<p>Also with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/86191/tyler-tettleton">Tyler Tettleton's</a> pass to Chase Cochran, he became the all-time passing yards leader in Bobcats history. Again, he's just taking the Ohio passing record book and throwin' "TT" all over it.</p>
<p><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135063/anthon-samuel">Anthon Samuel</a> has 124 yards on 19 carries and Beau Blankenship is also creeping up on 100 yards. He's got 18 carries for 97 yards.</p>
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2012/11/7/3616320/bgsu-stays-ahead-19-14-after-three-quarters-ohio-still-cant-puntMatt Sussman2012-11-07T21:31:09-05:002012-11-07T21:31:09-05:00BGSU 19, Ohio 7: Punting hilarity ensued
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<p>And <i>there's </i>that crushing Falcons defense we've been reading about in our textbooks. The Bobcats accrued just 21 yards on 17 plays, including field position lost on a botched punt (although <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/159992/grant-venham">Grant Venham</a> was able to turn that into positive yards somehow!) and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38844/matt-weller">Matt Weller</a>, who was back to punt, missed the snap and that resulted in a safety.</p>
<p>On the BGSU side, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135063/anthon-samuel">Anthon Samuel</a> brought half of Athens with him into the end zone for one score, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/89071/matt-schilz">Matt Schilz</a> executed a glorious play-fake to the extremely-vacant <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135089/chris-gallon">Chris Gallon</a> for a 55-yard touchdown, and then that one safety play. They had a decent chance at a Hail Mary pass that fell incomplete, but that's the kind of quarter it's been for the Bobcats.</p>
<p>Anthon Samuel has 76 yards on 11 carries and if the Falcons want to win this game, they need him to move the chains and drain time.</p>
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2012/11/7/3616060/ohio-bowling-green-halftimeMatt Sussman2012-11-07T20:42:55-05:002012-11-07T20:42:55-05:00Ohio leads BGSU 7-0 after the first quarter
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<p>Ohio began the game with an impressive drive, going 72 yards on 11 plays, mostly on the ground, ending with a keeper by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/86191/tyler-tettleton">Tyler Tettleton</a>. It was the first touchdown/PAT combo allowed by Bowling Green since the second quarter against Akron, which was four games ago. A tough Beau Blankenship run also seemed to knock BooBoo Gates out of the game, who was taken to the locker room with an unknown injury.</p>
<p>Offensively BGSU had some nice runs by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135063/anthon-samuel">Anthon Samuel</a> but <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/89071/matt-schilz">Matt Schilz</a> has looked completely out-of-sync. He almost threw an interception to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135793/ian-wells">Ian Wells</a> on an awful erratic wobbly pass, who tried to balance the ball against his helmet but it touched the ground. He also threw a short pass into the ground. He also threw a pass to himself. That kind of game for him so far.</p>
<p>A <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/159992/grant-venham">Grant Venham</a> punt was blocked by the Falcons' <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135073/brian-sutton">Brian Sutton</a> and set up terrific field position for the Falcons as the quarter neared its end. Other than that opening drive, it's been all defense all the time.</p>
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2012/11/7/3615900/ohio-bowling-green-first-quarterMatt Sussman2012-11-07T11:57:28-05:002012-11-07T11:57:28-05:00A deeper look at BGSU's lockdown defense
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<p>The BGSU defense has not been challenged by many great offenses in the conference, but crunching some numbers shows just how well they've performed against them compared to their averages.</p> <p>I can't stop talking about Bowling Green's defense, which is a personal problem. Usually the defense was the problem, and that's what makes it so refreshing. In this century their offense was putting up 30, 40 points a game and the defense had to be good enough. For once, it's the other way around.</p>
<p>Now, the Falcons have a really tough game in Athens, Ohio tonight. The Bobcats have just one loss but rebounded in a big way over EMU. The mind-boggling stat on BGSU's side is they've given up 33 points in their last five games. (Ohio gave up 34 points to UMass.) And when ranked on a level playing field, the Falcons points allowed per game is ninth in the country. NINTH. That's so un-MAC-like it's stupid.</p>
<p>Yes, the Falcons haven't really beaten anyone particularly outstanding other than Miami, who did beat Ohio, but that's a transitive argument. Akron, EMU, UMass ... they're supposed to shut those teams down and they did. But they shut them down much below their average scoring.</p>
<p>Let's do something fun here: numbers! I'll strip this down to conference-only games. Here is each MAC team's scoring against MAC opponents:</p>
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<p><b>Points Per Game (MAC only)</b><br>NIU: 47.17<br>Kent State: 37<br>Toledo: 36.33<br>Ohio: 34.8<br>Ball State: 34.67<br>WMU: 32.17<br>CMU: 31<br>Miami: 28.4<br>BGSU: 24.8<br>Akron: 22<br>EMU: 20.8<br>Buffalo: 17<br>UMass: 12.8</p>
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<p>Now there's probably a better way of doing this, but I took each team's defensive effort against each MAC team. Negative points means they held teams to that many points less than their average; positive points means they gave up more than the team usually scores:</p>
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<p><b>Defensive Points Allowed Per Game (Relative To Opponent PPG, MAC only)</b><br>BGSU: -13.67/game<br>NIU: -9.87/game<br>Buffalo: -5.74/game<br>Kent State: -3.05/game<br>Ball State: -1.24/game<br>WMU: +0.34/game<br>Toledo: +1.16/game<br>Akron: +2.97/game<br>Ohio: +5.68/game<br>CMU: +5.93/game<br>EMU: +6.28/game<br>UMass: +7.13/game<br>Miami: +7.40/game</p>
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<p>So yes, BGSU hasn't played a bunch of strong teams, but they did keep them WAY below their offensive norm. Zero to UMass. Three to EMU. 10 to Akron. 12 to Miami. 27 to Toledo. In every one of those games, to date, they have kept their opponent at least 10 points below their average, save for Toledo, who was kept nine points below.</p>
<p>So yes, their total defense of 15 points allowed per contest is skewed by the fact that they've played only one of the top seven teams, and four of the five worst offensive teams (not including themselves), but they've taken care of business well beyond the mean of expectation.</p>
<p>Likewise, Ohio's competition has been offensively unimpressive and they can boast the fourth best scoring defense in the MAC (26 points per game) but they've given up more points against them and therefore rank ninth in this metric.</p>
<p>I've spent all those time proselytizing the defense ... mostly because as a BGSU fan, I don't want to talk about the offense. So let's do some crude math here and gloss over that inconvenient fact.</p>
<p>BGSU scores 24.8 points a game. Ohio gives up 5.68 points per game above the team's average. So BGSU might score about 30.48 points.</p>
<p>Ohio scores 34.8 points per game. BGSU allows 13.67 points below the average. So Ohio might score 21.13 points.</p>
<p>Of course, the game is also in Peden Stadium, skewing the advantage to Ohio. And yes, games are not played on a spreadsheet, so the Falcons defense could give up a couple early touchdowns and if that happens, they'll need to play a flawless game to get back into it, which may not happen.</p>
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2012/11/7/3613248/ohio-bowling-green-previewMatt Sussman